Bitcoin’s volatility has plunged, but extreme price swings are more frequent than in 2018

Bitcoin’s volatility has plunged, but extreme price swings are more frequent than in 2018

Özet: Kripto piyasasında önemli gelişmeler yaşanıyor.

Bitcoin BTC$82,486.39 is experiencing more unusually large price swings this year than during the 2018 bear market, even as its overall volatility has fallen sharply, and that’s a challenge for anyone relying on standard risk models.

The largest cryptocurrency has recorded 10 days in 2026 when its price moved at least three standard deviations from its recent trading pattern, according to a CoinDesk analysis.

That’s more than the eight such days recorded during all of 2018, when bitcoin lost 73% of its value.

Traders measure these unusually large moves in ‘sigma,’ a measure of how far an asset’s price typically deviates from its normal behavior.

To quantify them, CoinDesk compared each day’s price move with bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility, a measure of how much its price typically moved each day over the previous month.

Any day that moved at least three times that amount, up or down, counted as a ‘3-sigma’ day.

In a normal bell-shaped distribution, about 95% of moves fall within 2-sigma, and 99.7% within three.

That makes a 3-sigma move rare, which is why traders use it to flag outsized swings.

A high count indicates an asset remains prone to sudden jolts, even if its overall volatility is cooling.

The findings suggest bitcoin has calmed down over the years, but it still has outsized days, and this year it has had them more often than in 2018.

Analiz: Piyasa hareketliliği devam ediyor.